NFL second-year breakout candidates: Will Levis and other 2023 draft picks ready to impress (2024)

The number of rookies who don’t bother waiting for their true breakout season seems to increase annually. The latest example, perhaps, is Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Or, maybe Texans edge Will Anderson Jr. Or Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. MaybeAtlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Oh, and probably Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua.

You get the point.

The 2023 rookie class made its mark, to be sure — and we’ve yet to hear everything from the entire group. With that in mind, let’s look at a few second-year players who could have breakout seasons (health willing) in 2024.

Quarterback

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (Round 2, No. 33)

Frankly, a few guys have an argument here. Aidan O’Connell is in a fight with Gardner Minshew II for the Las Vegas job. If he wins that, do not be surprised if he (once again) outperforms expectations — O’Connell was one of the most undervalued prospects in the 2023 class. I’m also not ready to give up on Bryce Young, and I’m excited to see Anthony Richardson for more than a month.

However, the breakout pick is Levis. He was a really tough evaluation coming out of Kentucky due to a toe injury he suffered in 2022, but his downfield accuracy (and confidence) was much better in 2021. That’s what we saw last season with Tennessee.

During Levis’ nine-game run as starter, 21.5 percent of his completions went for more than 20 yards — a tick better than Stroud’s number (20.5 across the entire season). Being consistently accurate at every level of the field is the next step for Levis, and it’s attainable with more healthy reps.

Running back

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (Round 3, No. 81)

Gibbs, Robinson and De’Von Achane all enjoyed big rookie seasons. Had it not been for a major ACL injury, Baltimore’s Keaton Mitchell (currently on the PUP list) would have joined them.

Spears was on the fringe, too, rushing for 453 yards on 100 attempts. He tied with Gibbs for second among rookies (behind Robinson) with 52 catches for 385 yards and another score. Replacing Derrick Henry with one human doesn’t happen. But even though Spears will have help from Tony Pollard, don’t be surprised if he’s the new star in Nashville by season’s end.

Also keep an eye out for Chicago’s Roschon Johnson and Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet.

Wide receiver

Tank Dell, Houston Texans (Round 3, No. 69)

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, No. 50)

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (Round 3, No. 79)

A broken fibula limited Dell to 11 games last season — and even so, it still might be cheating to include him here. The former Houston Cougars dynamo racked up 2.22 yards per route last season, third among rookies behind only Nacua and Rashee Rice. Despite his small frame (5-foot-8, 165 pounds), Dell is a force underneath and better in the air than people think (six contested catches last year).

Reed (64 catches, 793 yards, eight TDs) was one of the most unsung contributors to Jordan Love’s breakout season, and Downs, another undersized speedster, was arguably Richardson’s favorite target in Indianapolis prior to the QB’s injury. (Downs could miss the start of the regular season with a high ankle sprain.) Also don’t be shocked if Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who missed a lot of timein college) steps up and reminds people who he is out west this season.

Those players, Nacua, Rice, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison make for an outstanding WR class just by themselves.

Tight end

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, No. 42)

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (Round 3, No. 78)

The 2023 tight end class was hailed as potentially historic, and it’s hard to hate on the production. LaPorta set a rookie TE receptions record, and Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid would’ve been the runaway top first-year tight end in any other season but 2023.

Oddly enough, though, the top two breakout candidates for 2024 play for the same team.

Musgrave is the favorite after putting up 34 catches for 352 yards and a touchdown in an injury-shortened, 11-game season. Kraft, his classmate and teammate, isn’t far behind. He played the full season, finishing with three fewer catches, three more yards and one more touchdown than Musgrave.

Both are terrific athletes — especially Musgrave, who flirted with 4.4 speed in college at 6-6, 250.

Offensive line

Sidy Sow, New England Patriots (Round 4, No. 117)

Darnell Wright, Chicago Bears (Round 1, No. 10)

Joe Tippmann, New York Jets (Round 2, No. 43)

Matthew Bergeron, Atlanta Falcons (Round 2, No. 38)

Peter Skoronski, Tennessee Titans (Round 1, No. 11)

Sow, a hyper-versatile and athletic big man, was one of my favorite Day 3 picks from the 2023 draft. The 6-4, 325-pounder was a left guard/tackle at Eastern Michigan, then shifted to right guard as a rookie. It wasn’t always pretty, but Sow had some big-time flashes in 13 starts.

Tippmann (who had some snap issues early in camp) and Wright both showed their potential in the run game last season and should continue to improve, while Bergeron got a full year’s worth of starts at right guard for the first time in his life. One of the most athletic linemen in the 2023 class, Bergeron was a right/left tackle only in college and could make a big jump as part of a very solid Atlanta front.

Skoronski, an outstanding college tackle, had his move inside to guard stunted by an early-season injury. If he can stay healthy, the Titans’ offensive line — which also added Alabama OT JC Latham in this year’s draft — might surprise people.

Defensive line

Tuli Tuipulotu, Los Angeles Chargers (Round 2, No. 54)

Keeanu Benton, Pittsburgh Steelers (Round 2, No. 49)

Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 1, No. 19)

Karl Brooks, Green Bay Packers (Round 6, No. 179)

As with Dell, it’s probably a bit unfair to include Tuipulotu here — he had a really good rookie season (as did several rookie linemen, including Anderson, Jalen Carter, Byron Young and Kobie Turner). However, the quick and smart 6-3, 260-pounder now gets to work with Jesse Minter in an offshoot of the Ravens’ system. Look for the Chargers to heap more on his plate and unlock more than we’ve seen. He could be a star in that defense.

Benton has dropped weight and appears in line for more work after a very efficient rookie year. His combination of punch and foot speed could provide a serious, versatile upgrade inside for the Steelers.

If Kancey can stay healthy for a full season and shore up his run discipline next to Vita Vea, Tampa Bay’s interior could be the best in the NFL.

Brooks, another Day 3 favorite from 2023, made the absolute most of a rotational role at multiple spots for Green Bay (four sacks, 25 pressures in just 256 reps — also, don’t forget about Lukas Van Ness) and, like Benton, has the athletic versatility to be a terror for slower linemen. Arizona edge BJ Ojulari also was on this list before he went down with a knee injury early in training camp, a tough blow for a promising youngster.

Linebacker

Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions (Round 1, No. 18)

SirVocea Dennis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 5, No. 153)

Otis Reese IV, Tennessee Titans (UDFA)

Campbell’s rookie season got complicated when Detroit asked him to move out of the stack and into an edge role for a brief stretch. His play over the second half and into the playoffs, though, was very good. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him get the green dot as defensive play caller, even with veteran LB Alex Anzalone on the roster.

Dennis didn’t play much last season, but the 2023 fifth-rounder is in line for more work with Devin White now in Philadelphia. Dennis was a long, explosive general nuisance inside at Pitt (12 TFL, seven sacks as a senior) and has the type of effort/instinct combination Todd Bowles covets.

The best rookie linebacker in 2023 was Vikings undrafted free agent Ivan Pace Jr. But another UDFA, Reese showed real promise and serious play speed for a handful of games late last season. He could be an answer inside for the Titans this season.

Defensive back

Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (Round 1, No. 17)

Brian Branch, Detroit Lions (Round 2, No. 45)

Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals (Round 3, No. 95)

Tyrique Stevenson, Chicago Bears (Round 2, No. 56)

Gonzalez had a great first month last season before his year ended because of a shoulder injury. The best mover among corners in the ’23 class, Gonzalez (4.38-second 40-yard dash, 41-inch vertical, 32-inch arms) could be a bright spot early for Jerod Mayo.

Branch is another player who might have outperformed this list, but he did lose several games to injury last season. More importantly, Detroit plans to further expand his role in 2024 — the Lions believe he’s a future Pro Bowler. Cincinnati could say the same about Battle, another ex-Alabama safety who looks like a potential perennial stud.

Other candidates include Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Izien. Stevenson, though, had some outstanding stretches last year in Chicago and should only improve opposite Jaylon Johnson.

(Top photos of Will Levis, left, and Keeanu Benton: Matthew Maxey, Mark Alberti / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Nick Baumgardner is a senior writer/NFL Draft analyst based in Michigan. He co-hosts “One of These Years," a Detroit Lions podcast with Colton Pouncy. He joined The Athletic after stops at the Detroit Free Press, MLive Media Group and other newspapers in Michigan, Indiana and Kentucky. Follow Nick on Twitter @nickbaumgardner